The Solid State of Trade Despite The Crisis

09/08/2022

It is surprising how global trade remains strong despite the crisis

According to a report mapping the most important trends and prospects of global trade in goods, international trade in goods increased by up to 10 percent over pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels. Beyond the war in Ukraine, trade is projected to grow faster in 2022 and 2023 than in the previous decade. New leaders of trade growth are emerging in Southeast and South Asia; exports from sub-Saharan Africa will accelerate sharply. Vietnam, India and the Philippines stand out for the pace and scale of trade growth forecast to 2026.

DHL and the NYU Stern School of Business have published the new DHL Trade Growth Atlas. It is a report covering 173 countries, providing valuable business intelligence useful to both policy makers and industry leaders. It also sheds a positive light on the resilience of global trade, despite recent crises and pessimism in the markets.

"Our goal is for DHL's Trade Growth Atlas to become a reference resource for understanding and coping with changes in the global trade landscape. Trade will continue to be a key driver of prosperity, as it has been for centuries. In the current global business environment, DHL can help customers rethink certain supply chains, basing them on a reasonable balance between costs and risks to make them efficient and safe. As the world's leading logistics provider, we offer solutions for all logistics needs, and we have proven that we provide stable and reliable services even in volatile market environments," says John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express.

International trade is considered to be particularly important in the current context due to its power to accelerate economic growth, reduce inflation and allow countries and companies to access multiple sources of essential inputs.

Key takeaways: growth, change and opportunities

The report also quantifies changes in the share of countries and regions in world trade. Among the main conclusions are the following:

The Covid-19 pandemic has not been the huge setback for global trade that many anticipated: international merchandise trade increased by up to 10% compared to pre-pandemic levels, even in the face of considerable supply bottlenecks that restricted further growth.

The prospects for future trade growth remain surprisingly positive: Due to the war in Ukraine, trade growth forecasts were lowered, but trade is still forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in 2022 and 2023 than in the previous decade.

Understanding global trade and its opportunities

Another point that is examined is the growth trends of world trade, geographical changes, the combination of traded products and broader changes in the business environment. It analyzes product trade worldwide, by region, for advanced versus emerging economies, and among 173 countries. The report presents concise one-page summaries for each of these countries. The countries included comprise more than 99% of the world's trade, GDP and population.